General Risk Index : A Measure for Predicting Violent Behavior Through Written Communication

One of the most challenging threats to the security of society is attacks from violent lone offenders. Identifying potential offenders is difficult since they act alone and do not necessarily communicate with others. However, several targeted violent attacks have been preceded by communication published on social media and the internet. Such communication is a valuable component when conducting risk and threat assessments.In this paper, we introduce a diagnostic measure of the risk of violent behavior based on text analysis. Using automated text analysis, we extract psychological variables and warning indicators from a given text and summarize these in an index that we denote as the general risk index. When developing the general risk index, we analyzed data (text) from 208 288 users on 32 online environments with diverse ideologies/orientations, including 76 previous violent lone offenders. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed that, when using the general risk index, it was possible to correctly classify between 90% and 96% of the cases depending on the comparison sample. These results support the predictive validity of the general risk index, suggesting that the risk index can be used to identify individuals with an increased risk of committing violent attacks that need further investigation.