Cases Vs Deaths: Which Indicators To Assess The Effectiveness Of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During Covid-19 Pandemic?

To mitigate the impact of COVID-19, the government has adopted various NPIs (Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions) ranging from wearing masks to social distancing. Over the due course of time, it has been proven that these NPIs are effective but assessing the effectiveness of the NPIs on the COVID-19 spread is still discussed. Till now, case confirmation and hospitalization have been incorporated as indicators to determine the success of NPIs. Here, we compare the effectiveness of two indicators such as the death rate and the number of cases, and their variation with human mobility, in assessing the effectiveness of NPIs to control the impact of COVID-19. The study includes the daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, Google Mobility Reports, and information on NPIs in 9 Italian regions for over 2 years from 2020. Similar considerations can be applied to other countries. The intent is to improve the method proposed by Wang et al. in 2020. Our findings suggest that in combination with human mobility, the death rate works better than the number of cases in assessing the effectiveness of NPIs. These findings can help policymakers formulate the best data-driven approaches for tackling confinement issues and structuring future scenarios in case of new outbreaks.