An Artificial Neural Network Model to Forecast Grain Crops in North-Kazakstan Agricultural Experimental Station

The paper analyzes and predicts the yield of grain crops of LLP “North-Kazakhstan Agricultural Experimental Station” for the last 30 years. The class of artificial neural networks-multilayer perceptron (MLP) was used as a research tool. The process of training of a model of a neural network consisting of 30 networks was performed on the basis of 70% training and 30% control samples. Based on the analysis of residuals histogram and scatter plot of the target and output function, the best neural network models MLP-1-7-1 (p=0.92), MLP-1-8-1 (p=0.97), MLP-1-5-1 (p=0.82) were selected. Next, using the best MLP 1-8-1 network, the model was tested the given data. Using time series projection, a graph was illustrated and a table of predicted grain yield values for the coming years was tabulated. The absolute error showed the high accuracy of the obtained best MLP 1-8-1 network for forecasting the amount of grain crop yield. The obtained model of artificial network can be applied in research and monitoring of agricultural production development.