Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation with Electric Vehicles Penetration in the Brazilian Power Grid

With the growing rate of greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector, research and development of new technologies for producing less polluting and more efficient combustion engines have been constant. However, the reductions have not been so significant, as the vast majority of these engines are still dependent on fossil fuels. Electric Vehicles are one of the main alternatives for reducing greenhouse gases. However, its high cost and charging infrastructure are still barriers in the current scenario, but, in the long term will become highly competitive and tend to dominate the market in the transport area. In this work, projections of the light vehicle fleet evolution in Brazil will be presented, until 2050, considering the penetration of the main types of electric vehicles. Based on government data from the expansion of the interconnected electrical system, estimates of indirect emissions from recharging electric vehicle batteries are presented for low and high-electric mobility scenarios. Estimates show a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, even considering the low mobility scenario, where part of the combustion fleet is still present. A particularity is observed about plug-in hybrid vehicles, as their autonomy in electric mode is sufficient for daily driving demands, and emissions may suffer more significant reductions.