Flow-Network-Based Method for the Reliability Analysis of Decentralized Power System Topologies With a Sequential Monte-Carlo Simulation

This article introduces a sequential Monte-Carlo simulation method (MCS) based on flow networks to represent decentralized power systems and evaluate the reliability and availability of their topologies. It can be used to provide a comparison basis during the system design phase. The method can be employed to simulate a variety of types of decentralized local power systems. It is able to simulate bidirectional, radial, and meshed systems with both repairable and nonrepairable elements. Examples of elements that can be simulated include power sources, loads, and energy-storage units. The determination of system success is performed using a minimum-cost-maximum-flow graph algorithm that calculates the power delivered to the system loads given the state of the system components. If the loads are being properly supplied, the system is deemed functional. The simulation can accommodate additional sets of rules for system success if needed. The method can generate a variety of indices for system availability and reliability based on the system topology and the parameters of its individual components. Three example systems are presented and simulated to showcase the method's capabilities.