Oxy-Fuel Combustion: A Threat or an Opportunity for Solar?

The rapid growth of solar, as well as other variable renewable energies, is key for achieving decarbonization targets. However, their integration to the grid and increased curtailment have become a major challenge for their further development in the most successful markets. In this study, the impacts of introducing an oxy-fuel combustion resource in California's energy grid are evaluated. To do so, we use RESOLVE, a capacity expansion model, to predict the energy grid mix for 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045. Our results indicate that the model chooses to build the oxy-combustion resource when it is available at relatively low costs. While the introduction of oxy-fuel combustion, even at limited scale, reduces the selected operational capacity of solar PV and lithiumion batteries, it substantially reduces the curtailment of the solar that
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installed. Far from being a threat, this reduction could be an opportunity for solar to continue with robust growth, retaining its economic and environmental value even when the procurement of storage might otherwise limit its adoption rate.