Probabilistic Model Checking of Handball Action Sequences

As a coach preparing for a tournament faced with limited training sessions and resources, it can be a challenge to understand what training activities and strategies are going to have the greatest benefit to the team performance. Towards addressing this challenge, we investigate the use of action sequence modelling and simulation to calculate the possible improvement gains that may be achieved by incrementally improving some aspects of player performance and decision making. More specifically, we apply, a probabilistic model-checking tool to calculate the probability of scoring given a probabilistic model of player decisions and performance. The application of probabilistic model-checking to handball action sequences appears to be new to the field of handball analysis. We consider the adequacy of the approach and the utility as applied to a junior women’s team during preparation for a minor tournament.