A New Multi-Scale Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting

When a large number of distributed power and renewable energy are connected to the smart grid, the volatility and intermittency of renewable energy bring some challenges to the smart grid. Therefore, accurate medium-term load forecasting is essential because it is conducive to the stability of the power grid and can provide data support for the power generating plan. Many factors affect medium-term load forecasting and the real-time electricity price is a very important factor among them. In this paper, a multi-scale model based on LSTM model is proposed to extracts features from 3 different time scales including half-hourly time scale, daily time scale and monthly time scale. At first, the half-hourly data is processed by a half-hourly data processing layer to extract the half-hourly features. Then, its output is concatenated with the daily load data and is input into a daily data processing layer. Finally, the daily features are concatenated with the monthly load data and they are input into a monthly data processing layer to extract the monthly features and get the final forecasting results. The case study results demonstrate that the proposed multi-scale model has better performance than the single-scale models.