Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Agricultural Production in Azerbaijan

The article is devoted to the issue of econometric analysis and forecasting of agricultural production. Based on SSCAR official statistical data, the production volume of some agricultural products (meat, milk, eggs, cereals and dried pulses, potatoes) for 1996-2021 was econometrically evaluated. Econometric models were built for each of the considered agricultural products. With this, the types of econometric models available in scientific circulation for relevant products in Azerbaijan was expanded. The scientific novelty of the article is the increase or decrease of the arable land allocated for the relevant plants in the current year increases or decreases the production volume of cereals and dried pulses with a 4-year delay, and for potatoes with a 1-year delay. The fluctuation of the sown areas of the respective plants is explained by the application of the rotation method of planting in order to ensure the maintenance of soil fertility. For each type of product, the average annual growth rates of production for the considered years were calculated. On the basis of established models, the forecast values of production for the studied products were calculated for 2022-2025. The obtained results can be used by farmers, entrepreneurs and relevant institutions of the Ministry of Agriculture.