On Efficient Planning of Oil&Gas Investments and Characteristics of BMS-models Destabilization

With an unconventional approach, we regard the problem of building a precise adaptive model of oil price dynamics in the context of investment projects. I. Newton formulated the principle of analysis. We list the Principles of applying the stochastic theory of asset management to building the optimal investment projects in oil and gas field development. We also analyze all the data of daily oil exchange from 1988 to 2019 (spot prices, Platts (Platt’s) McGraw Hill Financial). We use methods and quantitative evaluations of adaptive BMS models with stochastic switches. We outline precise (normalized quadratic deviation within 9%) adaptive BMS models, plot extrapolation (quasi-forecast) on a stability period; make a stability period quasi-forecast and list essential quantitative evaluations and graphs. We discuss the possibility of quick profiting using BMS models. We also discuss the approaches to solving the problem of building optimal midterm oil and gas field development projects and operations, as well as the results we acquire. Analysis of incomes and expenses of an optimal investment project would allow for a substantiated decision on whether the development should be started or forgone.