An Approach to Calculate Marginal CO2 Emissions Factor Based on Historical Emissions

Assessing the effectiveness of climate action policies enacted by governments is crucial in addressing the challenges of climate change. In this regard, marginal carbon emissions could be employed as an evaluation factor. This paper introduces a mathematical approach to compute the marginal emissions factor at a quarter-hourly resolution. The method relies on readily available average emissions factors derived from the generation schedule and corresponding fuel mix. Leveraging publicly accessible datasets from the Irish transmission system operator's data portal, the approach incorporates historical mean carbon intensity time series and system generation data. Our findings reveal that even minor fluctuations in demand could lead to significant increases in marginal carbon emissions, contingent upon the system's conditions concerning variations in renewable generation and interconnector flow. By quantifying these relationships, policymakers and stakeholders gain valuable insights for optimizing climate change mitigation strategies.