Initial orbit determination method of maneuvering target based on prior knowledge

A method of determining the initial orbit of the maneuvering target based on the prior knowledge of orbit maneuver-ing ability was proposed in order to address the issue of a significant error in determining the semi-major axis of the too short arc initial orbit of the space target after maneuvering. Initially, the in-orbit operation of the space target was pro-cessed and analyzed using TLE historical data, and the change rate of the Kepler orbit root number was utilized as an index of orbital maneuvering capability to determine the maximum maneuvering capability in the past. Prior knowledge is transformed into a penalty term in the least squares objective function during the first orbit selection process, and the target orbit's maneuverability is employed to restrict the outcomes. The approach is validated using TLE data from the Cosmos-2542 spacecraft that was made available by SpaceTrack, Matlab, and STK software. According to the findings of a Monte Carlo simulation, a semi-major axis orbit may be accurately determined for a 30 second optical observation arc, and the Laplace-least squares method's deviation decreased by roughly 93%.