Analysis of Forecast: Electricity Demand Energy of Sulawesi and Maluku 2060 Utilizing LEAP Application

The Indonesian government by 2030 has placed a high priority on enhancing the quality and utilization of renewable energy to tackle energy and environmental challenges, aligning with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 9.4. To assess future trends in energy demand, consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Indonesia from 2020 to 2060, various scenarios and sub-scenarios are analyzed. This study focuses on achieving NZE for consistency by 2060 through technology adoption and CO2 emission reductions, in line with the Paris Agreement’s objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The research emphasizes the significance of enhancing energy efficiency through demand-side management and energy-efficient technologies. These measures not only result in cost savings for households, businesses, industries, and the government but also contribute to carbon emission reductions. GHG emission projections utilize the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) application. The Sulawesi region is expected to witness substantial growth in energy demand, particularly within the industrial sector. Key industries such as food and beverage production, tobacco, textiles and garments, leather and footwear, bamboo and rattan, paper, paper products, etc., are projected to experience significant increases in electricity demand. The growth rates for these sectors range from 5.09% to 37.1%, indicating a rising need for electricity to support various industrial processes. Notably, the total emissions in Sulawesi decreased impressively by 22.17% between 2021 and 2060. Similarly, the Maluku region demonstrates a promising trend of increasing electricity demand in the industrial sector, with an overall growth rate projected to be 5.93%. The food and beverage industry are expected to witness significant growth at a rate of 8.01%, while the textile and apparel sector and the pulp and paper sector are estimated to grow at rates of 9.02% and 9.22%, respectively. The total emissions in Maluku reduced significantly by 20.54%.