Probabilistic Power Flow Algorithm Considering Diurnal Variation in the Power Output of Photovoltaic Power Generation Model

Aiming at the deficiency of ignoring the reactive power output of photovoltaic (PV) power stations at night in the existing probabilistic power flow research, this paper proposes a probabilistic power flow calculation method based on Monte Carlo simulation, which takes into account diurnal variation in the power output of PV power stations. Firstly, according to the proposed PV output model, the actual output under typical light intensity and ambient temperature is simulated, and the Beta distribution function which conforms to the PV output curve is obtained. Then, based on Monte Carlo simulation, a probabilistic power flow analysis method considering diurnal variation in the power output of PV power stations is established. Finally, the validity and correctness of the proposed methods in this paper are verified by simulation analysis with the measured data of a PV power station and the IEEE14-node test system. Simulation results show that the probability distribution information of power flow cannot be accurately estimated without considering the reactive power output of PV power stations at night.