Research on Decoupling Relationship among Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Growth under Dual Carbon Goals in China

The aspiration of reaching a carbon peak by 2030 and attaining carbon neutrality by 2060 is an inherent requirement for achieving high-quality development. This paper adopts the energy economy theory to construct an optimization model to predict future energy consumption trajectory and CO
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emissions path in China. Furthermore, drawing upon the Tapio decoupling index methodology, we studied their decoupling characteristics. The results show that in the dynamic evolution process from energy consumption dual control to carbon dual control, energy consumption continues to exhibit an ascending trajectory in the foreseeable near to medium term in China, and a steady downward trend in the long term. Similar trends in carbon emissions. The period from 2020 to 2035 is a critical window for energy, economy, and carbon emissions to undergo decoupling in China. After 2035, China entered a stage of strong sustainable development. Between 2020 and 2040, the decoupling between energy intensity and carbon emission intensity remained stable but exhibited a relatively weak trend. After 2040, energy intensity and carbon emission intensity entered a phase of significant decoupling, marking China's successful transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon emissions dual control.