A Fossil Fuel Consumption Calculation Method Based on Regression Model of Electricity Consumption

Fossil fuel consumption data is an important resource to calculate carbon emissions. In many existing studies, Statistical yearbook is one of the main data sources for studying China's carbon emissions. However, statistical yearbooks cannot provide fossil fuel consumptions of the current year. Fossil fuel consumptions are closely tied to electricity consumption, so it is reasonable to studies their relationship and calculate fossil fuel consumptions based on the relationship. Furthermore, the data of electricity consumption is real-time, so it can be used to calculate fossil fuel consumptions in the current period. This paper builds three regression models: LR, AR and ARDL. Using historical fossil fuel and electricity consumption data and the electricity consumption data at current time, the models can calculate the fossil fuel consumption at current time. The models can also be used to calculate cement output. Examples of calculating fossil fuel consumption and cement output are given. The examples show that ARDL model is suitable for calculating fossil fuel consumption or cement output, and it can deal with cases with minor or middle-range oscillations.