A Novel Energy Consumption Prediction Model of Electric Buses Using Real-Time Big Data From Route, Environment, and Vehicle Parameters

Electric vehicles (EVs) have positive impacts on reducing oil dependence and exhaust emissions. However, the range problem of EVs is a factor that raises concerns for individual users and bus operators. For this reason, studies on increasing the range of the electric buses in public transportation is extremely important to ensure optimum operation. In this study, a novel energy consumption model, MTECM (Malatya Trolleybus Energy Consumption Model), is developed using the multi-parameter linear regression method. The real-time big data was collected on the field of Trolleybus vehicles, which have been operated for 8 years in Malatya / Türkiye. Firstly, by calculating the correlation of the parameters affecting this model, the parameters that are suitable for the purpose of our study are determined and regression analysis is performed on the original Trolleybus dataset. A total of 75.497.472 data are analyzed for this model. The RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of MTECM is calculated as 0.29996. The trained model is applied to the 10 busiest routes in Malatya in terms of passenger density. The RMSE value on these routes is calculated between 0.30299 and 0.31421. Based on the results, with lower error rates, the proposed novel model is more efficient than other studies in the literature. In addition, energy consumption can be calculated for any route planned to establish an electric bus operation with MTECM. Therefore, according to the consumption obtained, the correct determination and selection of parameters that significantly affect the investment cost such as route, vehicle length, engine power, and battery capacity can be made.