Prediction and Mitigation of PM2.5 in Coastal Ports of China

PM
2.5
has become one of the air pollutants of great concern to achieve green development in coastal ports of China. Accurate prediction will facilitate the prevention and control of PM
2.5
. PM
2.5
concentrations of 19 coastal ports of China for 2022-2024 were predicted using a seasonal nonlinear Weibull Bernoulli grey model (SWBGM (1,1)) based on monthly data from 2015-2021. A genetic algorithm was used for model parameter optimization. The best simulation outcomes were discovered for Shanghai port, Quanzhou port and Ningbo-Zhoushan port. The prediction results reveal a consistent decline in the annual average PM
2.5
concentration for all ports. The PM
2.5
concentrations are highest in winter and the lowest in summer, and the monthly distribution follows a U-shape. The predicted PM
2.5
concentrations in the Bohai Rim Area are relatively high, particularly in Huanghua port and Tianjin port. Mitigation measures in reducing air pollution were proposed considering the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the future PM
2.5
concentration. The results are expected to deliver effective information for future pollution reduction and sustainable development of the ports.