Influencing Factor Analysis of Interception Probability and Classification-Regression Neural Network Based Estimation

The interception probability of a single missile is the basis for combat plan design and weapon performance evaluation, while its influencing factors are complex and mutually coupled. Existing calculation methods have very limited analysis of the influence mechanism of influencing factors, and none of them has analyzed the influence of the guidance law. This paper considers the influencing factors of both the interceptor and the target more comprehensively. Interceptor parameters include speed, guidance law, guidance error, fuze error, and fragment killing ability, while target performance includes speed, maneuverability, and vulnerability. In this paper, an interception model is established, Monte Carlo simulation is carried out, and the influence mechanism of each factor is analyzed based on the model and simulation results. Finally, this paper proposes a classification-regression neural network to quickly estimate the interception probability based on the value of influencing factors. The proposed method reduces the interference of invalid interception data to valid data, so its prediction accuracy is significantly better than that of pure regression neural networks.