The Impact of Import Risk on China's Oil Supply and Its Evolution

This paper first establishes a Chinese oil risk assessment system combining traditional and complex network indicators to determine the evolutionary trend of oil supply risk. Then, a risk analysis system for China's oil import source countries is developed to determine the risk level of China's oil import source countries considering four factors: resource, political, economic, and environmental. In addition, the robustness of the China-dominated oil import network is analyzed using a cascading failure model. The results show that China's tight centrality tends to decrease, trade freedom decreases, and oil supply risk is moderate and tends to increase from 2016-2021. Among China's major oil importers, the risk is low for import source countries represented by Saudi Arabia and Russia, and high for export source countries represented by Angola and Oman. After random and deliberate attacks on the oil import network, it is found that the China-dominated oil import network is more robust, with countries such as Angola and the United States leading to network cascade failures after deliberating attacks. By identifying the main risk countries in the oil import network, relevant suggestions are made to optimize the oil import structure, which is important for safeguarding China's oil security.