Learning to Understand the Vague Graph for Stock Prediction With Momentum Spillovers

In the realm of deep graph learning, our study uniquely addresses the under-explored area of vague graph learning. While the effectiveness of deep graph learning is recognized across various disciplines, the nuances of vague graph learning — whether its inherent vagueness should be incorporated or disregarded and its influence on deep graph learning efficiency — remain largely unexamined. We fill this gap by introducing a novel decoupled graph learning framework. This is achieved by proposing a matrix-based or a tensor-based fusion module to estimate unobservable node attributes, a hybrid attention mechanism to bridge nodes with both explicit and implicit relationships, and a message-passing mechanism for feature-sensitive transporting. The design principle of decoupling allows it to accommodate ambiguities in any or all of these aspects of node representation, linking, and message passing. Furthermore, we leverage an extensive stock dataset spanning 64 years across the entire U.S. market to assess our framework. This real-world data not only adds a practical dimension to our study but also highlights the effectiveness of vague graph learning. Remarkably, our framework demonstrates superiority over state-of-the-art algorithms, marking performance enhancements of at least 6.73%, 7.25%, and 11.39% in terms of Rank IC,
$R^{2}$
, and Rank ICIR, respectively.