Spatial-temporal variation analysis and prediction of carbon storage in urban ecosystems based on PLUS-INVEST model: A case study of Jiangsu Province

The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems is of great significance to the strategy of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”. Based on the land use data of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020, this paper uses PLUS and InVEST models to evaluate the changes of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020, and sets natural development scenarios, urban development scenarios, cultivated land protection scenarios and ecological protection scenarios to predict and estimate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in Jiangsu Province in 2030. In this paper, the PLUS model is used to predict the land use data of Jiangsu Province in 2020, and the actual land use data in 2020 is used for verification, and the Kappa coefficient is 83.74% and the accuracy is 90.53%, which proves that the PLUS model is reliable. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the ecosystem carbon storage in Jiangsu Province showed an overall downward trend, with an overall decrease of $20.83\times 10^{6}$t, a decrease of $17.76\times 10^{6}$t from 2000 to 2010, and a decrease of $3.07\times 10^{6}$t from 2010 to 2020. Among the four scenarios, the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario was the highest, and the carbon storage under the urban development scenario was the lowest.