Transforming Cognitive Maps into Markov Process Models for Software Development Projects

The complexity of managing software development projects in organizational and technical systems is due to a number of features. Such projects are weakly structured systems. The parameters of weakly structured systems form a complex “web” of connections and states that change over time. The development of projects in such a multifactorial environment can only be represented in the form of qualitative models. The use of cognitive maps with their subsequent presentation in the form of Markov chains allows quantifying the course of project processes, which are the main condition for the success of the project. At the same time, quantitative estimates represent not only a multi-vector picture of the state of projects, but also have the property of forecasting. The scope of the proposed method can be significantly expanded through the use in the educational process in the training of professionals in the field of programming and project management.