Analysis of energy standards for low-income housing throughout the 21st century: A focus on reducing cooling loads in Mexico

Developing countries like Mexico have implemented energy policies to reduce summer cooling loads and mitigate climate change. This study analysed the energy policies for housing for the economically and socially vulnerable population. A numerical method was used to evaluate compliance with energy standards, currently mandatory, throughout the 21st century and to determine early adaptation strategies. The current scenario (2023) and two future projections (2050 and 2100) were quantified using the climate model developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Three climate change scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways were used in the future projections. As a key result, the cooling needs increase by more than 20 000 CDH in the benchmark case compared to the worst-case scenario documented. The difference compared to scenarios 1 and 2 is 0.5 °C. At the same time, using timely strategies reduced the temperature and the cooling needs. The current and future scenarios analysis showed pathways towards an equitable energy transition focused on anticipating climate change and optimising existing resources for the most vulnerable population.