Method for the Efficient Determination of Transformation Paths for Sector-Integrated Energy Systems

An increased complexity of the energy system and the goal of the European Union to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 lead to a higher demand for energy system modeling and the determination of transformation paths. This paper extends an existing linear optimization model for energy system planning by three approaches to determine transformation paths in multiple steps. The three approaches, Perfect Foresight, Myopic Forecasting, and Myopic Backcasting, are presented and compared based on a simplified 41-nodes network representing a sector-integrated European energy system with a clear focus on Germany. The results prove that Myopic Forecasting and Myopic Backcasting significantly reduce the computation time but show higher total costs.