GAuLF: gas automated load forecaster

An expert system for short-term forecasting of natural gas sendout is presented. GAuLF, or gas automated load forecaster, has been developed to assist Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (NMPC) gas operators in estimating short-term demand for gas. GAuLF uses a hybrid rule-based and pattern recognition approach to forecast hourly gas sendouts up to 96 hours in advance. GAuLF presently uses a five-year historical database of weather and gas sendout, and a rule base that takes into consideration periodic variations of the sendout as well as demand growth. GAuLF's structure and operational results are discussed.<
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