Interval Energy Flow Analysis for Integrated Heat and Electricity System Based on Affine Arithmetic

The theory of uncertain energy flow analysis is important to the planning and operational optimization of integrated heat and electricity systems (IHES). In order to study the impact of uncertain factors on the IHES, an interval energy flow analysis method based on affine arithmetic is proposed in this paper. The electricity model, heat model and coupled component model based on affine arithmetic is first built considering the uncertainty of multi-energy loads. The IHES interval energy flow model is then efficiently solved by an integrated method using Krawczyk-Moore algorithm with affine arithmetic. Finally, the proposed method is fully verified in a test system of 4-bus power system and 3-node heating network. The accuracy and low-conservativeness is validated by comparison with Monte Carlo simulation method and interval method.