Evaluation of Investment Benefits for the Incremental Distribution Network based on System Dynamics

Penetration level of distributed power sources in the incremental distribution network (IDN) has continued to rise. How to clarify the dynamic relationship among various participants in the IDN and analyze the influencing factors that affecting investment benefits has become the key to the planning, investment, and operation of the IDN. This paper thus establishes a multi-agent competitive evaluation model of investment benefits for the IDN with the distributed renewable energy under multiple scenarios based on the system dynamics modeling. The economic evaluation is carried out through the indicators of net present value and the rate of net present value. Sensitivity analysis is then carried out on key parameters including electricity wheeling tariffs, the electricity consumption by large industrial customers, and the electricity sale price for large industrial customers. The model can be used to scientifically analyze the investment benefits of IDNs with distributed power supply, provide suggestions for the collaborative development of IDN and renewable energy, and provide decision-making basis for capital investment in IDNs.