Residential Load Response Potential Estimation Method Based on Mechanism and Data Analysis

High penetration of renewable energy resources poses technical and economic challenges to system operation. Utilizing demand response (DR) to provide regulation power to the system is both low-carbon and economic. Therefore, an accurate response potential estimation method for loads is necessary for DR. Residential loads have great regulation potential, but the distribution of loads is scattered, which increases the difficulty of load response potential estimation. Therefore, this paper both analyzes the mechanism and data perspectives to decrease the estimation difficulty and increase estimation accuracy. Firstly, the aggregated power of loads is derived. Then, the response potential of loads is estimated based on mechanism analysis considering several factors. Finally, a novel estimation algorithm is presented through dividing the estimation of the overall loads into several independent groups, in which data analysis is adopted to obtain the characteristics of parameter distribution. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed response potential estimation method.