Wind Speed Prediction Based on ARMA and SVR

Wind power generation technology is one of the research hotspots of renewable energy nowadays. In order to ensure the stable and reliable operation of wind power generation equipment, wind speed prediction is very important. This paper provides a new idea for the wind speed prediction based on Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). First, to reasonably divide the original data into multiple historical data with strong correlation as features to predict the future wind speed, the ARMA model is employed and its partial autocorrelation coefficient is calculated. By this means, the input features can be optimally selected and the training set of the prediction model can be constructed. Further, SVR model is used to build the nonlinear relationship between the input features and future wind speed. Finally, through simulation, it proves that this method saves more time than try and error method in selecting input features, and through comparison with Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), it proves that this method can achieves higher wind speed prediction accuracy.