Power supply security in a carbon neutral Finland

Recent events in Europe have shown how important power supply security is for the functioning of modern society. At the same time, the increasing share of renewables makes the electricity supply in Europe more unpredictable and unreliable, and it is unclear how power supply security will be managed in the future. As such, this paper models the cost effectiveness of thermal power plants and battery storage as flexibility sources in a carbon neutral Finland in 2035. The modelled results indicate that 1.8 – 8.0 GW of dispatchable generation capacity will be needed to facilitate renewable growth by 2035, increasing with lesser reliance on electricity trading and demand response, as well as with the electrification of the heating sector. Moreover, large scale battery storage is shown to be an ineffective approach for flexibility compared to the use of thermal power plants, whereas the addition of nuclear SMR showcases the clearest advantages.