Research on Prediction of Per Capita Disposable Income of Rural Residents in Shandong Province Based on GM (1,1) Model

Residents' disposable income refers to the disposable income that residents can use. The changing trend of living standards in a country or region plays a decisive role in the consumption expenditure of residents. Based on the original data source in Shandong Statistical Yearbook, this paper analyzes the per capita disposable income of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2021, and establishes a GM (1,1) forecasting model to analyze and predict the per capita disposable income of rural residents in Shandong Province in the next five years. The model results show that the GM (1,1) forecasting model is suitable for forecasting the rural per capita disposable income in the next five years, and the precision is relatively high. Judging from the forecast results, the gap between the per capita disposable income of rural residents and urban areas is still large. In order to narrow the gap between urban and rural per capita income and promote the common prosperity of farmers, local governments also need to gradually lake measures to increase The income of rural residents and strengthen assistance to rural residents to increase their income.