Research on risk assessment and damage prediction model of typhoon disaster in Shandong Province based on TDRI

This paper develops a typhoon risk assessment model for Shandong Province using the "disaster risk index method" and "weighted comprehensive evaluation method". The model evaluates typhoon disaster risk and spatiotemporal change characteristics, and predicts using an Elman neural network. Results show increasing exposure and resilience but similar risk and vulnerability over time. The risk of typhoon disasters in Shandong Province decreases from coast to inland, aligning with the economic spatial aggregation. The prediction model has a minimum relative error of 0.003 and high accuracy in training and testing, demonstrating its usefulness for predicting typhoon damage.