Predictive Risk Assessment of Heart Failure using HAZOP and Qualitative Risk Analyses

Hazard and Operability study (HAZOP) is an engineering tool utilized in the process industries to prevent the occurrence of industrial hazards and plan mitigation strategies. Heart failure is a cardiovascular hazard that can be avoided and averted given proper prior preventive protocols. It is a common cardiovascular disease whose prevention is a subject of high interest. The aim of this research is to predict the risk of heart failure employing, in novelty, HAZOP study coupled with conventional qualitative risk analysis. In recent times, a lot of attention has been given to HAZOP study in identifying risks and hazards in engineering systems; hence, the exploratory use of this initiative in a cross-disciplinary terrain in physiology is considered to be unique. In this work, HAZOP analysis was carried out on the heart qualitatively using guidewords such as less flow, no flow, reverse flow, more pressure, less pressure and the conditions that could cause these were considered at different nodes or parts of the heart such as the vena cava, the right and left atria, the ventricles and the tricuspid valve. In the course of the analysis, the consequences were identified and the severity of each cause were also obtained with the probability sourced from literature and employed for qualitative risk assessment using a risk matrix. Safety functions and safeguards were also proposed based on the consequences that were identified. The risks involved with different causes of heart failure were estimated with the probability and severity being known. The results from this research reveal that with the use of HAZOP it is possible to identify different scenarios that cause heart failure, quantify how severe the effects of the causes can be and how probable they are and assign numerical risk scores to the causes and effects. The method shows promise for predictive and prognostic purposes for the prevention and care of heart failures.