Mission Impact Analysis by Measuring the Effect on Physical Combat Operations Associated With Cyber Asset Damage

As operations previously undertaken only in physical space in the past have changed to operations that include cyberspace, it is crucial to define the concept of “cyber missions” clearly. In this study, “cyber mission” refers to any military operation or process that utilizes cyber systems to perform actions in accordance with orders delivered to them. Because a weapon system that utilizes a cyber system executes actions based on the commands transmitted to the cyber system, it is necessary to analyze how attacks from cyberspace affects such a weapon system. To this end, it would be meaningful to analyze the tools used to analyze the mission impact of physical weapon systems linked to cyber-attacks. The US military’s Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual (JMEM), which contains the results of analyzing the effects of weapon systems, does not include analysis results for the effects of weapon systems on cyber-attacks. In this study, based on the analysis of the effectiveness of physical warfare, the damage to cyber assets was quantified and associated to calculate the cyber index for the analysis of operational efficiency. In connection with JMEM, the results of combat in cyberspace and the effects of physical operations were compared and analyzed to propose a framework to judge the impact of missions, and the performance was tested. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework, domestic and foreign operational scenarios were analyzed and designed, assets were defined, and experiments were conducted. These experiments showed that a greater decrease in the cyber mission effect value was related to a greater effect on physical operations. This framework could be used in a variety of operations to predict the physical impact of a cyber-attack and will help determine the next step in an operation.