Stakeholder engaged energy systems modelling: three Canadian case studies

Meeting Canada's emission reduction targets requires a fundamental shift, not only in the infrastructure underpinning the supply and delivery of energy services, but also in the institutional frameworks that govern policy and investment decisions. Stakeholders' engagement in the energy transition is gaining momentum, but a communication gap between experts and decision makers is impeding the impact of model-based decarbonization analyses. This represents a substantial missed opportunity. We present three case studies that adopt a two-pronged strategy to co-create and co-deliver model-based insights. The first prong entails the development of an integrated energy modelling suite that provides a holistic perspective of energy systems that spans sectors, spatial-temporal scales, and energy vectors. The second prong entails a model implementation process, in which stakeholders and researchers co-develop 'Scenario Bundles' to analyze a particular project, policy, or target through a series of collaborative activities. We present three case studies, at the federal, inter-provincial and municipal scales respectively, that apply these two prongs in distinct stakeholder-driven modelling projects. We conclude with a critical analysis of the role of modelling and stakeholder engagement in effective decision making.