Long-Term Risk Evaluation of Power System Considering Extreme Weather Events

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events have brought severe burdens on the power system, which attracted wider attention for risk evaluation under weather disasters. However, the previous studies mainly focus on the short-term resilience evaluation of power system under certain extreme weather, which ignores the rarity of extreme weather events. as a result, this paper proposes a long-term risk evaluation model of power system considering multiple extreme weather events. Firstly, the long-term weather scenarios are generated based on disaster-causing factors modeling and Sequential Monte Carlo. Then, the failure scenarios of power systems are developed based on the fragility curves of electric components and the stochastic sampling method. Finally, the long-term risk indices are defined and obtained by the optimal power flow model, which provides guidance for further power grid planning.