Research on New Energy Operation Credible Capacity Evaluation and It’s Influence on New Energy Accommodation

The existing credible capacity of new energy mainly studies the comprehensive contribution of annual credible capacity of new energy to the reliability of power system from the perspective of sufficiency at the planning level. This paper establishes the available capacity probability model of wind power and PV power based on the probabilistic forecast, and calculates the operation credible capacity of new energy at every time under the same reliability level, and analyzes the influence factors of operation credible capacity. Besides, this paper establishes the time sequence simulation model which included the operation credible capacity into the start-up schedule of conventional units, and the new energy accommodation before and after the inclusion was calculated. The results show that, in the example, after incorporating the operation credible capacity of new energy into the unit start-up plan, compared with the traditional method, the utilization rate of new energy has increased from 93% to 95%.