Research on China's GDP forecast based on ARIMA model

With the rapid development of digital technology, the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy has become an important indicator to measure a country's economic level. A country's economic and social stability is inseparable from the development of the real economy. Capitalist countries led by the United States have also returned to the manufacturing industry to promote the optimization and upgrading of the national industrial structure and restructure the status of the value chain. These measures have a profound impact on China's import and export trade dominated by the export of primary products, and then affect the stable development of China's national economy. Therefore, in the unstable international environment, in order to more accurately specify import and export trade policies and relevant policies to maintain stable economic growth, the prediction of GDP is particularly important. This paper focuses on the research of the national economy at the macro level, and establishes ARIMA model to reasonably predict the future GDP trend, so as to formulate macroeconomic policies more accurately and maintain the rapid and stable development of the national economy. The empirical results show that ARIMA model can well predict the future trend of GDP and provide guidance for policy-making.