Application of Risk Modeling to Assess the Effectiveness of Motor Transport Decarbonization

The main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector is motor transport. The most effective measures for the decarbonization of vehicles include the use of gas motor fuel (GMF). It is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of these measures, related to the need to take into account both positive and negative effects that manifest themselves at different stages of the life cycle of vehicles using natural gas or hydrogen as fuel, it is proposed to implement by models based on a risk-oriented approach (complex risk). As initial data for modeling, using the data of intelligent transport systems (ITS) on vehicles, the results of evaluation for environmental risks associated with emissions of harmful substances and greenhouse gases, man-made risks of accidents during the maintenance and operation of vehicles and infrastructure, risks of overcoming organizational, technological and economic problems that hinder the widespread using of these alternative energy sources. It also evaluates the prospects for using ITS as security barriers to manage the security of vehicles and infrastructure and minimization of possible negative consequences in the implementation of the life cycle of vehicle and energy sources. Directions for improving the proposed modeling method are considered.