Carbon emission forecasting method considering the combination of energy demand and economic exogenous factors

In order to study the future evolution path of carbon emissions and analyze the impact of different factors on changes in carbon emissions, the paper proposes a equilibrium analysis model based on “economy-energy-electricity-environment” to study the future evolution of China’s carbon emissions and analyze the influences of different factors on the change of carbon emissions. In the model, the grey correlation analysis is first adopted to screen the factors influencing carbon emissions, and then the logarithmic mean Divisia index is adopted to decompose the factors that cause carbon emissions change. Finally, the expandable stochastic impacts by regional population impact and technology after ridge regression training is used to predict the future trend of carbon emissions. The scenario prediction results show that the model can meet the accuracy requirements and can be used to predict the future carbon emissions of the region.