Resilience Analysis of Mesh-Grid Integrated Distribution Network using Bayes' Theorem

The inclusion of distributed energy resources (DERs) has transformed the traditional distribution network (DN) into active distribution network (ADN). The DERs are intermittent by nature leading to generation related uncertainties. Combined with frequent changing weather conditions and increasing load fluctuations, it has become even more important for the ageing system to attain resilience. In this paper, mesh-grid integrated ADN is used to demarcate the most sensitive region within system due to wind related uncertainties, which would have been a difficult task considering its geographical and topological spread. Although there are many methods to attain resilience, however mesh-grid integrated ADN is used for Bayesian analysis, to monitor performance of ADN. This novel method has the ability to integrate geographical information and uncertainty description coherently. Therefore, region-specific conditional dependency during uncertain events aids in better decision making by power system operators for enhance situational awareness (SA). Based on operational reliability indices obtained for different distributed generation (DG) and overhead (OH) line conditions, reconfiguration or back up diesel generator is used to attain resilience of the ADN.