Statistical Reliability Estimation for Satellites Operating from 1991-2020 with Payload Reliability Focus

Reliability analysis using satellite failure data for satellites launched in the years 1991-2020 is presented. The analysis is conducted using nonparametric, as well as parametric methods, specifically focusing on the reliability contribution of the payload subcomponent. The Kaplan-Meier estimator is utilized to derive a nonparametric reliability estimate from the raw failure data. With the nonparametric function produced, a Weibull distribution is applied to attempt and parameterize the behaviors seen. Percent contribution to overall satellite failure is also calculated for other satellite subsystems to use as comparison. Results from this analysis show a general increase in overall reliability over the previous 30 years. In addition, a low number of satellite failures being attributed to the payload subsystem make it a small contributor to overall satellite failure.