Calculating PV Hosting Capacity in Low-Voltage Secondary Networks Using Only Smart Meter Data

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are interconnected with the distribution grid at low-voltage secondary network locations. However, computational models of these networks are often over-simplified or non-existent, which makes it challenging to determine the operational impacts of new PV installations at those locations. In this work, a model-free locational hosting capacity analysis algorithm is proposed that requires only smart meter measurements at a given location to calculate the maximum PV size that can be accommodated without exceeding voltage constraints. The proposed algorithm was evaluated on two different smart meter datasets measuring over 2,700 total customer locations and was compared against results obtained from conventional model-based methods for the same smart meter datasets. Compared to the model-based results, the model-free algorithm had a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 0.30 kW, was equally sensitive to measurement noise, and required much less computation time.