Multi-Nodal Energy Systems Modelling Scenarios of South Africa's Power Sector

Climate change has brought about a revolution in power sectors worldwide with an urge to increase renewable energy penetration in the generation mix. South Africa, which has conventionally been a coal-dependent power generation country, is transitioning to cleaner resources such as solar and wind, which are abundantly available in the country. This large-scale integration of renewable energy in the national grid brings about the need to increase grid flexibility and strengthening to ensure that the country's power demands are adequately met. This paper thus models South Africa's energy mix in the year 2031 according to their respective supply areas as mentioned in Eskom's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019 and Generation Connection Capacity Assessment (GCCA) 2023 report, using IRENA's FlexTool software and assesses the transmission bottlenecks that the system might encounter. The results indicate a higher share of renewable energy in the future system, improvements in the unmet demand, reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and reductions in renewable energy curtailment with developments in future plant allocations, battery storage capabilities and transmission line expansions (i.e., investing further in upstream network strengthening to harness a higher yield of renewable generation capacity from the greater Cape areas of South Africa).