Evaluation of Technical Transformation and Transmission Project Cost and Risk Control with Value at Risk

Identify the cost risk factors of technical transformation and transmission project, including the interaction between the various factors, combine the typical project cost reference interval which is established basing on big data theory and 3116 samples completed and put into production from 2017 to 2021 in Shandong Province, propose a cost risk assessment model based on Value at Risk (VaR) theory, and solve the defect that the traditional method cannot quantify the uncertainty of risk variables. The model uses Monte Carlo to simulate the uncertainty fluctuation of cost caused by risk variables. Under the influence of risk factors, if the cost still falls within the reference range after the fluctuation, the maximum deviation of the cost from the mean value is defined as the VaR value, and the cost risk is controlled by controlling the VaR value of each typical project. In addition, the application scenarios of the model are given from three aspects of risk loss estimation, risk early warning threshold setting and dynamic adjustment of risk measures, and the proposed model and method are illustrated with examples.