Research on Prediction and Quantitative Analysis of Controlled Flight into Terrain Impact Based on QAR Over-limit Events

Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) is one of the main risks of civil aviation operation. In order to predict and analyze the risk of CFIT events occurring in Airlines, based on the flight operation of Sichuan Airlines, this paper selects the QAR overrun events triggered by the representative CFIT events as the evaluation index, summarizes 9 key factors, and builds a CFIT event analysis and prediction model based on the QAR overrun events. The model has strong applicability and practicability, and it can provide an effective grasp and model tool for airlines to carry out controllable flight collision risk control. In addition, for the CFIT events that have occurred, based on triggering the GPWS warning, the CFIT severity calculation model is built from the CFIT event occurrence time, whether the crew violates the rules, whether the aircraft crosses the envelope, warning type and warning time, etc., to provide a basis for the CFIT event severity classification. At present, the relevant achievements have been promoted and applied in the civil aviation industry of China.