DOD SATCOM Growth Measurement and Planning

DOD wideband SATCOM, like other electronic communications areas, is subject to exponential growth in user demand. DOD SATCOM therefore requires commensurate growth in supply in terms of both the space segment and the Earth segment. Information dominance requires an understanding of this growth, both qualitatively and quantitatively, in the policy making, planning, and execution of DOD SATCOM systems. DOD SATCOM growth is explained qualitatively as a response to an evolution of user demands, from voice, to data, to imagery, to video, and beyond. Growth in user demand follows technology innovations which improve warfighting capabilities, as well as increased access of all fighting components to such improved warfighting capabilities. Growth has subsequently driven the migration of DOD SATCOM Earth segment architectures from those capable of less capacity to those capable of more capacity. Multiple methods are used to quantify growth in terms of average compound annual growth rates (CAGRs). DOD SATCOM link count is shown to grow at ~10%, link rate at 9-10%, link bandwidth at ~8%, total bandwidth at ~19%, and total data traffic throughput at 20-22%. All rates are in terms of compound annual growth. Careful quantitative analysis of past growth trends informs future quantitative growth expectations, which in turn inform policy, planning, procurement, and operations. Understanding and addressing growth on the ground and in space is therefore instrumental to DOD SATCOM policy, planning, research, acquisition, implementation, and operations.