Limitations and Perspectives of Short-Term Renewable Energy Generation Forecasting Methods

Power plants operating on renewable energy sources such as wind power stations, photovoltaic power plants, hydro power plants are integrated into power systems, require the improvement of methods for the operational and short-term generation forecasting. It is very important to take into consideration not only forecasting error but also the reliability of forecasting information systems, the systems robustness and mathematical models related to the data distortions as well as the ability to adapt to changes in working conditions. Therefore, common problems arise for different types of renewable-energy power plants and solution methods may also be common. Researches are now focusing more on improving the prediction accuracy, which often does not provide reliability and resilience, in terms of adaptation and ensuring sufficient accuracy in real-world operation when operating conditions change. Main directions of the problems raised due to increase of accuracy, reliability and robustness of renewable energy sources generation forecasting are highlighted and justified in the article based on the analytical review results.