COVID-19 Suppression Using a Testing/Quarantine Strategy: A Multi-Paradigm Simulation Approach Based on a SEIRTQ Compartmental Model

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions represent the first-line of defense to tackle the dispersion of the disease. One of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions is testing, which consists on the application of clinical tests aiming to detect and quarantine infected people. Here, we extended the SEIR compartmental model into a SEIRTQ model, adding new states representing the testing (T) and quarantine (Q) dynamics. In doing so, we have characterized the effects of a set of testing and quarantine strategies using a multi-paradigm approach, based on ordinary differential equations and agent based modelling. Our simulations suggest that iterative testing over 10% of the population could effectively suppress the spread of COVID-19 when testing results are delivered within 1 day. Under these conditions, a reduction of at least 95% of the infected individuals can be achieved, along with a drastic reduction in the number of super-spreaders.